Predicting terror activity before it happens


New model utilizes data science to predict terror groups’ lifetime lethality after first 10 attacks

Data scientists have developed an early-warning model that can successfully predict how lethal a terror organization will become in the future based on only its first 10 attacks.

The predictive model, developed by researchers in Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management, will allow security forces to better identify and target the most destructive groups to potentially stop them before they grow too powerful.

“This early warning is huge because not only can it help the government target and neutralize the groups with the most potential for destruction, it also can help the government strategically deploy resources and avoid spending billions of dollars fighting a group that is likely to burn out on its own anyway,” said Brian Uzzi, corresponding author on the study and the Richard L. Thomas Professor of Leadership and Organizational Change at Kellogg.

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Source: Northwestern University